The Amazon rainforest covers around 5 million square kilometres spread over 9 countries, with more than half of it in Brazil. It plays an essential role in the fight against global heating by absorbing an estimated 1.5 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide a year. As well as performing a key function in stabilising the planet’s temperature, through cooling. However, while the Amazon as a whole still absorbs huge amounts of carbon dioxide, a recent study found that areas of the Brazilian Amazon are now omitting more CO2 than they absorb. The world’s largest rainforest is dying at an alarming rate, due to wildfires and deforestation. Meaning that the Amazon could soon be reaching a tipping point; affecting both its sustainability and its effectiveness for cooling the planet. So, how did Brazil’s Amazon come to produce more carbon than it absorbs? // 1, 2

Rainforests are self-sustaining ecosystems. The soil, flora, and fauna exist in perfect balance and are able to sustain and replenish themselves, as well as repair, following events like wildfires and droughts. Importantly, the water cycle of each rainforest ecosystem plays a vital role in helping to reduce global temperatures. Environmental scientists from the University of Virginia found that Earth’s tropical forests can cool the planet by up to 1 degree celsius. And not just through their function as carbon sinks. Tropical trees shade the forest floor from the sun and absorb water through the ground. Omitting it through their large leaves through transpiration. This creates both a cooling humidity as well as clouds, which reflect sunlight higher into the earth’s atmosphere. It’s estimated that a single water molecule travelling across the Amazon can fall as rain up to 6 times, but the last 3 years have seen an exponential surge in deforestation rates in the Brazilian Amazon, leading to fears that a potential tipping point is fast approaching. // 3

As large areas of forest are cleared, carbon that is sequestered escapes, but also great gaps appear between trees, which disrupts the water cycle and results in less rainfall. Meaning that parts of the Amazon could soon become a savannah-like grassland. Such a stark change in ecosystems will have a profound effect on global temperatures and leave the sustainability of the Amazon damaged beyond repair. The situation has been made worse since 2019, when president Bolsonaro took office. He allowed ranching on previously protected indigenous lands, and encouraged new mining and logging in the region. But the Bolsonaro policy switch which has had the biggest impact on deforestation rates was his endorsement of the soybean industry. // 4, 5

Since 2011, global demand for soybean products has risen drastically, with Brazil becoming the world’s number one soybean producer; contributing 138 million metric tonnes in 2020 and 2021, which is more than a third of the global output. Soy plants put a lot of demands on their environment. They have just one yield per life cycle, so the only way to increase production is to increase the amount of plants, and this requires more land. Because of this a moratorium was introduced in 2004, preventing Brazilian farmers from planting soy on any deforest land post 2006. And retailers would face penalties for buying products from this restricted land. In the decade after the moratorium was implemented it was hailed as a success. But farmers have found ways around the restrictions by expanding soy acreage in the less protected Cerrado savannah, and even continuing to clear land illegally in the Amazon. By growing soy plants on restricted land, and selling it through farms located in unrestricted areas, it allows them to present the product as being deforestation free to retailers. And exploiting the moratorium loophole was made easier when Bolsonaro slashed the size and function of Brazil’s environmental enforcement agencies, making it increasingly difficult to issue fines or prevent illegal deforestation.

New soy plantations are heavily suspected to be a key contributor to the record surge in deforestation of the Amazon, which can be best seen in the Mato Grosso region. It is projected that Soybean production in Brazil will rise to over 150 million metric tonnes, which would cover around 45 million hectares by 2028. But the political tide may be turning. In May 2022, Bolsonaro increased fines for environmental crimes and made public pledges to preserve the Amazon. Although there are concerns that these measures are more an effort to generate good publicity in an election year than to ensure any substantial change. What is clear is that whoever wins the 2022 presidential election will have to find a way to strike a balance. // 6