Mussolini to Hitler in May 1939 (a few days after the signing of the Pact of Steel): "Only after 1943 can a war have the greatest prospect of success."

Excracts from the diary of Count Ciano, Italian foreign minister:
* On 4 July 1939: "From Berlin, no communication, which confirms that nothing dramatic is in offing."

* On 20 July: "Intelligence reports indicated troop movements on a vast scale. It is possible that all this should take a place without our knowledge after so many protestasions of peace made by our Axis colleagues? We shall see."

* In the beginning of August: "The outbreak of war at this time would be folly. Our preparations are not such as to allow us to believe that victory will be certain. Now there are no more than even chances. On the other hand, within three years, the chances will be four to one. Mussolini has constantly in mind the idea of an international peace conference."

*On 6 August (a day before his meeting with Hitler in Salzburg): "The Duce (= Mussolini) is more than ever convinced of the need of delaying the conflict...I should frankly inform the Germans that we must avoid conflict with Poland, since it will be impossible to localize it, and a general war would be disastrous for everybody. Never has the Duce spoken of the need for peace so unreservedly and with so much warmth."

*On 7 August on the train to Salzburg Ciano told his aides that Germany could not possibly risk war: "We will talk to the English, to the French, to the Poles. We will persuade them." 

* In Salzburg Ciano was immediately informed by Ribbentrop, his German colleague, that Germany planned to attack Poland: "I return to Rome completely disgusted with the Germans, with their leader, and their way of doing things: They have betrayed us and lied to us."
(Source: Overy & Wheatcroft, The Road to War, 234-236.)

TASKS:
1) Why did Italy not join the war in 1939 despite its Pact with Germany?
2) Read page 150: Is there any other reasons?
3) Compare and contrast Italy's neutrality in 1914 and 1939.